Last year I made a fairly impressive set of Academy Award picks, so I’m back to weigh in one the 2014 action.

Sadly I will not be attending an Oscar food pun party this year as I’ll be back home in NY/NJ for some family events, but if I were to attend an Oscar food pun party I would no doubt win thanks to my would-be entry: GRAVIT-BRIE See, every year I submit a crescent roll wrapped baked brie in the shape of an film-affiliated item. The three-year streak includes: Baked Jeff Brie-dges (True Grit), The Brie of Life (Tree of Life), and Brie-sts of the Southern Wild (you get it at this point). My entry this year would have been a brie fashioned in the shape of Sandra Bullocks space suit helmet, and it would have been incredible.

Alas, I’ll have to settle for the prediction vs. food game this year. Note: I’m only weighing in on categories I feel “qualified” to comment on. Here we go:

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Lupita Nyong’o for 12 YEARS A SLAVE. Despite J.Law’s win at the Globes, this break-out start has been unstoppable since the Critic’s Choice Awards. And with her acceptance speeches rivaling her red carpet dresses, it’s a lock.

Should Win: June Squibb for NEBRASKA. Confession: NEBRASKA is the one film I didn’t see, but R has seen everything, he says June should win, and I trust him unconditionally when it comes to Best Supporting Actress picks, among other things.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Jared Leto for DALLAS BUYERS CLUB. It’s hard to be a straight man successfully playing a transgendered man in an incredible film while looking like Jaret Leto and not win this award. Bottom line: I loved the performance, but I loved another performance more.

Should Win: Barkhad Abdi for CAPTAIN PHILLIPS. This was an inspired performance by a previously unknown actor. He made me empathize with a Somali pirate out to hurt Tom Hanks! He deserves this.

Best Director

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron for GRAVITY. I have faith that the academy will reward the insane feat that was this film. I know there are some that say it should only win for cinematography because the directing was “simple” outside of the technical aspect, but all of those decisions were born out of the mind of Cuaron, so he wins.

Should Win: See above.

Writing: Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: John Ridley for 12 YEARS A SLAVE. This film is hot, and it was beautifully written by an industry veteran. I think it will be very tough to beat. 

Should Win: I’m torn. I really loved WOLF OF WALL STREET but I’m hesitant to say Terence Winter should win because that movie was just too. damn. long. Is that the writer’s fault or the director’s? Tough to say. Because of that I’m going to give this to the dark horses in the category: Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke for BEFORE MIDNIGHT. I have never seen a more realistic portrayal of a relationship on screen, and that should be rewarded.

Writing: Original Screenplay

 Will Win: I think this will go to David O. Russell for AMERICAN HUSTLE because I don’t think he’ll get Director or Picture, but the Academy voters will want to give him something.

Should Win: Absolutely no doubt about this. Spike Jonze for HER. Beautiful, original, poignant, and incredibly imagined. Some people feel it was too “on the nose” in certain areas, but I’m willing to forgive that for the overall result.

Best Actor

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey for DALLAS BUYERS CLUB. I think he’s been on a hot streak, and I think he’s going to take it. It was an incredible performance, and the weight loss never hurts. I also bet the academy voters are as in love with TRUE DETECTIVE as the rest of us, and I think that will play a part in this. Or maybe the Academy voters just want to hear him say, “all right, all right, all right,” on stage again. If so, well played.

Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio for WOLF OF WALL STREET. Brace yourself: I don’t like Leonardo DiCaprio. I never have. There’s something about his acting that just irks me. It might be his face? I’m not sure. But I loved him in this movie. I though he was an animal in this role, and that impressed me more than the rest this year.  

Best Actress

Will Win: Cate Blanchett for BLUE JASMINE. Amy Adams has given Cate a little run for Harvey Weinstein’s money, but I think she’ll take it in the end. People are saying this is a close race considering Sandra and Meryl are involved, but I personally don’t think either of them stand a chance.

Should Win: See above. I said she should win the minute I left that movie, and that was before I saw any of the others. I still feel that way today.

Best Picture

Will Win: 12 YEARS A SLAVE. This is exactly the kind of movie that wins Academy Awards. People are saying AMERICAN HUSTLE is a strong contender, and it has performed well throughout the season, but I don’t think it can top 12 YEARS among this voting crowd.

Should Win: I honestly don’t know. Part of me wants to say GRAVITY because it was the most incredible thing I’ve ever seen on a film screen. But HER was my favorite film of the year, by far. Then there is WOLF OF WALL STREET, which I really did enjoy. I wasn’t as much a 12 YEARS fan as some people, so I don’t think that should win, but I don’t have a clear answer about what should. I’m going to leave this one blank and just say I’ll be happy if anything but AMERICAN HUSTLE wins. I’m sorry. I liked it way more than SILVER LININGS or THE FIGHTER for that matter, but David O. Russell still doesn’t do it for me.

That’s my round-up! See you Sunday with results. And feel free to lambast my taste in comments, especially you Dustin 😉